The new souvenir skins
In this article we will generally talk about the new souvenir skins and their future, as well as the current supply. Did you already open some nice skins from the new Souvenir packages? Show us them in the comment section on Twitter.
Data from 11.11.2021
How to get them?
The Stockholm souvenirs could had been obtained by leveling up your coin throughout the Major, but if you haven´t done the challenges you can just purchase them at the price of 2.5€ per token ingame. As a note: There are some countries with buying restriction since those souvenir cases are categorized as "gambling" and not allowed in these places.
What to expect by opening them?
There are two types of packages: Ones that have classifieds as highest rarity (Nuke, Inferno, Overpass) and others with coverts as highest rarity (Dust2, Mirage, Ancient, Vertigo). The most desirable ones are logically those with coverts.
So what can you expect from opening these? Well, generally said a big loss. The rates for possible profit are very bad and with that most people who open them are just getting back greys, that are basically worthless value wise. The chance of getting a covert is around 1 in 3960 (~0.03%), while the chance of getting a grey is 80.01%.
Will people even open them?
Yes, they will, lots of them actually, it's something quite fun to open 1 or 2 to try your luck, especially if you earned them as a reward, and of course there are plenty of people that open them as they do with cases, trying to have some fun or just hunting for a lucky pack.
A lot of packs were opened at the beginning! For example, on floatdb there are over 400k souvenir skins from the Mirage collection alone so far. Of course, those big numbers are determinated by the hype around the Major, and of course the fact that they are new and people wanted to be the first to open high value skins. As we know the packs have a cooldown from being listed on the Steam Community Market as well as a tradehold. The restriction was added at the end of the last operation to prevent scammers from moving money around on Steam within game purchases.
That fact resulted in pretty high prices when they first got marketable and tradable. People were able to sell their packs on the market and use the money to buy others in-game with still having some profit. The most expensive ones are of course the Mirage and Dust2 packages, because of their top-tier coverts. After a few days people were expecting the prices to drop to normal but they actually just kept rising till a point where some packs sold for 12€ cash value on buff163.
The packs can be redeemed in game till 20th of December, so there´s still a lot of time left to do so. Most likely we will see a slow decrease in the price till they stabilize at around the amount they sell for in game. After that they will keep the price level until they get removed ingame. At that point we might see a small "panic buy" or a price manipulation attempt, but it's hard to say what exactly is going to happen. Usually we see a bit of panic after removals which is followed by mass buys.
How rare are they going to be?
The packs themselves are probably not going to be rare at all. They will get overinvested as most of the items that have been added to CS:GO over the last couple of years.
Are they gonna rise in price? Maybe, all depends of how many people will open them after they can't be purchased anymore in game. Is the supply gonna be huge? Most likely. Is the supply gonna drop in long run? It's gonna drop in short run for sure, a bit, but in a few months we will most likely gonna get a new Major that is gonna feature most or probably even every of the current collections again, which will drive the price of these back down and rise the supply.
About the skins, especially the supply of the covert ones, is not that big. With under 30 of them registered on floatdb the Imminent Danger is currently the least dropped, while on the other side, the Desert Hydra has a supply of over 250 already. Overall, not that big compared to the non-souvenir version of them, but big enough to not let the prices go as crazy as some people might have expected.